Each generation of AI models moves from a stochastic toy toward a controllable framework. That's not disappointment; it's when the technology becomes fit for real work inside a process.
AI capabilities aren't overestimated; the way firms expect to convert them is. The parameter arms race benefits superstars, while profit remains in ordinary processes.
AI agents are not employees. Your AI risk register is being written by a metaphor. Each broken assumption is a risk the employee frame can't see, and behind them all sits the strangest property of the new participant: agents are the first non-human actors to generate probabilistic decisions with consequences.
Agents Are Not Employees. The Three Systemic Risks the "Digital Workforce" Metaphor Hides: Amplification, Entropy, Coupling.
Three questions no framework asks:
What specifically absorbs an error once it starts moving through the loop?
What is the entropy budget: how much added variance can be added before its planning becomes decorative?
What is the coupling exposure: how synchronised have our automated decisions become with our competitors' automated decisions?