Trump, MAGA, World and Business

Sharp changes in USA politics and relations with traditional allies are bewildering experts and politicians and generating conspiracy theories and peculiar ideas. The bustling and agitating actions and publications in mass media demonstrate that confusion. Matthew Chance, in his analysis https://lnkd.in/eHjBmDRD, points to this fact.

An outline of the key drivers, goals, and actors can clarify the puzzle. 

The leading actors are Donald Trump and his team. Trump is an outstanding person with exceptional intelligence, rich experience, business acumen, and the highest integrity and persistence. 

Elon Musk must also not be underestimated. His task of optimising American bureaucracy is crucial for the Tramp’s plan, but it is also hazardous and challenging.

The goal “Make America Great Again” uses “Again” to explain what it will be. The golden decade of the US was the 60th of the 20th century. It encompassed industry, level of life, position in the world, morality, and ideology. Mr. Trump wants to recreate all that, President Trump has the means, power, and resources to do so. It is impossible to do like for like, but principles and proportions will be similar.

Re-industrialisation needs money, people, resources, industry, and the demand for manufactured goods. Fiat money can be emitted, people attracted, for example, by the gold card program, and resources imported, but the industry must be forced to move in and remove it from the origin. That will create demand and weaken competitors, but not too much, to keep a supply of simple goods.

The Western Hemisphere is a good location for re-industrialisation, and Europe is a promising source for the industry. China is a competitor who can supply cheaper but still competitive goods, so it must also be weakened. The rest of the world will adopt and adjust to that process or must develop a different plan and fight for it with all consequences.

That fundamental change has many aspects and factors, requires deep analysis and more space than a LinkedIn post, but that simple schema connects key dots for me.

There are two key points for business.

Mr. Trump is a businessman. Other companies can leverage standard business logic to analyse his actions, forecasts, and risk management.

The transformation will create short waves of demand, which can generate profit if managed correctly and the company is optimised for that.

P.S. The key question left behind is why Mr. Trump decided to do MAGA, Europe is passive and reactive, Mr. Xi is quiet and Mr. Putin is doing what he is doing.

P.P.S. Ukrainian war, or conflict, or special military operation is awful, cruel, bloody, loud, but minor political constraint for the global transformation planned by President Trump. He is dealing with that problem accordingly.

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